Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-10 0.015969 0.018081 0.020370 0.023038 0.026060 0.029380 0.033306
2025-08-17 0.012274 0.015096 0.018418 0.022621 0.027800 0.033983 0.041936
2025-08-24 0.010499 0.013666 0.017610 0.022889 0.029784 0.038499 0.050382
2025-08-31 0.009089 0.012389 0.016694 0.022729 0.030992 0.041939 0.057599
2025-09-07 0.008252 0.011708 0.016400 0.023249 0.033021 0.046509 0.066627
2025-09-14 0.007187 0.010567 0.015319 0.022509 0.033151 0.048385 0.071972
2025-09-21 0.006442 0.009783 0.014637 0.022224 0.033835 0.051023 0.078559
2025-09-28 0.005714 0.008940 0.013769 0.021547 0.033825 0.052569 0.083564
2025-10-05 0.005458 0.008784 0.013906 0.022396 0.036200 0.057900 0.094881
2025-10-12 0.005159 0.008528 0.013854 0.022924 0.038085 0.062586 0.105547
2025-10-19 0.004905 0.008316 0.013845 0.023505 0.040083 0.067589 0.117142
2025-10-26 0.004534 0.007871 0.013412 0.023329 0.040776 0.070453 0.125306
2025-11-02 0.004218 0.007500 0.013080 0.023314 0.041775 0.073972 0.135041
2025-11-09 0.003866 0.007034 0.012547 0.022898 0.042030 0.076215 0.142702
2025-11-16 0.003657 0.006805 0.012407 0.023170 0.043535 0.080795 0.155054
2025-11-23 0.003406 0.006474 0.012053 0.023008 0.044209 0.083888 0.164839
2025-11-30 0.003271 0.006350 0.012066 0.023534 0.046226 0.089646 0.180290
2025-12-07 0.002985 0.005909 0.011448 0.022785 0.045692 0.090449 0.185936
2025-12-14 0.002781 0.005613 0.011081 0.022496 0.046035 0.092979 0.195280
2025-12-21 0.002550 0.005244 0.010540 0.021811 0.045511 0.093715 0.200935
2025-12-28 0.002506 0.005249 0.010746 0.022671 0.048251 0.101329 0.221869
2026-01-04 0.002429 0.005181 0.010796 0.023206 0.050343 0.107753 0.240785
2026-01-11 0.002361 0.005126 0.010869 0.023793 0.052594 0.114689 0.261445